246,000 Americans Added to Social Security Disability During the Second Quarter.

Only 225,000 Americans Found New Jobs

Net Loss of Jobs since 2008 - 1.3 Million Jobs Lost

Net Increase in Social Security Disability Recipients since 2008 - 3.6 Million Individuals Added to Social Security Disability Rolls

"Amazingly, while fewer Americans are working than at the end of 2008, 3.6 million Americans have been awarded SSDI benefits over the same period.  The growing number of people on disability and other federal benefits, combined with weak economic growth, raises serious concerns about the sustainability of the American economy."

--- Senator Jeff Sessions (R)

Unemployment Rate Remains at 8.2% in June, Labor Force Participation Remains at 63.8%

A Bureau of Labor Statistics report released today shows that the U.S. unemployment rate remained at 8.2% in June.

The Labor Force Participation rate also remained unchanged, at 63.8%.

The Washington Dispatch began tracking the current employment recovery against that following the 1980s recovery with the release of January 2012 unemployment and labor force participation figures earlier this year.  In February, Labor Force Participation rose slightly.  March marked a return to the overall trend of declining Labor Force Participation, which continued in April and has been the primary driving force behind falling unemployment.  Labor Force Participation rose slightly in May, but remained unchanged in June.  Compare the current trend with that of the 1980s recovery:

Since unemployment peaked at 10% in October 2009, its decline has mirrored the decline in Labor Force Participation. Looking at the same number of months following peak unemployment of 10.8% in December 1982, Labor Force Participation rose while unemployment fell.

Gasoline Retail Deliveries by Refiners Remain at Record Low Levels

Data released this month by the U.S. Energy Information Administration showed that gasoline retail deliveries declined in March, to 29,512,600 gallons per day:

The Washington Dispatch previously reported on the massive decline in gasoline deliveries in February and March of this year.

Unemployment Rises to 8.2% in May, Labor Force Participation Remains Near Three Decade Low

A Bureau of Labor Statistics report today shows that the U.S. unemployment rose to 8.2% in May.

The Labor Force Participation rate also rose slightly to 63.8%.

The Washington Dispatch began tracking the current employment recovery against that following the 1980s recovery with the release of January 2012 unemployment and labor force participation figures earlier this year.  In February, Labor Force Participation rose slightly.  March marked a return to the overall trend of declining Labor Force Participation, which continued in April and has been the primary driving force behind falling unemployment.  Compare the current trend with that of the 1980s recovery:

Since unemployment peaked at 10% in October 2009, its decline has mirrored the decline in Labor Force Participation. Looking at the same period of time following peak unemployment of 10.8% in December 1982, Labor Force Participation rose while unemployment fell.

Housing Starts Continue to Outpace Completions, Both Remain Near Record Lows

The U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development released the latest residential construction figures today:

Privately-owned housing starts in April were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 717,000.  This is 2.6 percent . . . above the revised March estimate of 699,000 and is 29.9 percent . . . above the revised April 2011 rate of 552,000 . . . . Privately-owned housing completions in April were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 651,000.  This is 10.0 percent . . . above the revised March estimate of 592,000 and is 20.1 percent . . . above the revised April 2011 rate of 542,000.

The Washington Dispatch previously reported that the difference between housing starts over completions hit a three-decade high at the beginning of 2012.

The gap between housing starts and completions has lessened, but remained wide in April.  Both housing starts and housing completions continue to hover near record lows:

Home prices are continuing to fall, according to the S&P Case-Shiller Indices.

Consumer Price Index Unchanged in April; Core Inflation Continues to Outpace Disposable Income

The Consumer Price Index remained unchanged in April, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics:

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) was unchanged in April on a seasonally adjusted basis, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.3 percent before seasonal adjustment.

Beginning this month, The Washington Dispatch will keep track of its Core Inflation Rate, consisting of the 5 basic necessities for most middle and lower income Americans:  Rent, Medical Care, Gasoline, Home Energy, and Food at Home:

In addition, The Washington Dispatch will also track the spread between the core inflation rate and the inflation rate of real disposable personal income per capita:

Finally, The Washington Dispatch will track a modified Misery Index using the core inflation rate and the U6 unemployment rate:

The Washington Dispatch Core Inflation Rate for April 2012 fell below 3.0.  The Washington Dispatch Misery Index currently sits about halfway between pre-recession levels beginning in 2007, and peak levels during the recession. Core Inflation continues to steadily outpace growth in real disposable personal income per capita.

Unemployment Falls to 8.1% in April as Labor Force Participation Falls to 63.6%

A Bureau of Labor Statistics report today shows that the U.S. unemployment fell to 8.1% in April.

However, the Labor Force Participation rate also fell, to 63.6%, the lowest it has been since December 1981.

The Washington Dispatch began tracking the current employment recovery against that following the 1980s recovery with the release of January 2012 unemployment and labor force participation figures earlier this year.  In February, Labor Force Participation rose slightly.  March marked a return to the overall trend of declining Labor Force Participation, which continued in April and has been the primary driving force behind falling unemployment.  Compare the current trend with that of the 1980s recovery:

Since unemployment peaked at 10% in October 2009, its decline has mirrored the decline in  Labor Force Participation. Looking at the same period of time following peak unemployment of 10.8% in December 1982, Labor Force Participation rose while unemployment fell.

Despite this trend, the Obama administration continues to embrace failed Keynesian ideology and refuses to embrace reality and pursue those policies which have proven successful in the past.

The mean duration of unemployment continues to hover near its all-time high, currently at 39.1 weeks:

U6 Unemployment, which also counts marginally attached workers and those who are employed only part-time for economic reasons, remained at 14.5% for the second month in a row:

Despite being more accurate than the U3 rate, the U6 unemployment rate still fails to accurately portray the current employment picture, as long-term discouraged workers are not included.  Were these individuals, whose numbers are growing by the millions, counted, the unemployment rate would be well over 20%, and unlike the U3 and U6 rates, would show no discernible improvement at all over the past few years according to economist John Williams (chart courtesy of Shadow Government Statistics):

Economic Growth Slows to 2.2% in First Quarter of 2012

The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis reported today that the U.S. economy grew at a compounded annual rate of 2.2% in the 1st quarter of 2012, down from 3% in Q4 2011.

Last month, The Washington Dispatch began tracking the progress of the current recovery against the 1980s recovery.

Since the second quarter of 2009 (the last quarter of GDP contraction), real GDP growth has averaged 2.4% over the last eleven quarters.  By comparison, in the eleven quarters following the third quarter of 1982 (the last quarter of GDP contraction resulting from the early 1980s recession), real GDP growth averaged 5.5%, or more than double the current average:

Stalling industrial production, falling demand, rising inventory excesses, and declining labor force participation have all contributed to lackluster growth and continue to expose the U.S. economy to the risk of a "double-dip" recession, a fate the United Kingdom recently succumbed to.

Durable Goods Demand Plummets in March

A new report from the Department of Commerce today showed that demand for durable goods declined drastically in March:

New orders for manufactured durable goods in March decreased $8.8 billion or 4.2 percent to $202.6 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today.

Inventories once again hit a new all-time high in March:

Inventories of manufactured durable goods in March, up twenty-seven consecutive months, increased $1.7 billion or 0.4 percent to $375.1 billion. This was at the highest level since the series was first published on a NAICS basis and followed a 0.3 percent February increase. Transportation equipment, also up twenty-seven consecutive months, had the largest increase, $0.8 billion or 0.7 percent to $118.0 billion. This was also at the highest level since the series was first published . . .

As the Washington Dispatch reported last month, the excess of inventories over orders continues to show that the U.S. economy remains exposed to the risk of a "double-dip" recession:

Home Prices Fall Again in February

Standard and Poors announced today in a press release that home prices in the U.S. fell again in February 2012.  

The S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices:

fell by 0.8% over the month, resulting in annual returns of -3.6% and -3.5%, respectively . . . . February 2012 data confirm that, broadly-speaking, home prices continued to decline in the early months of the year . . . . As of February 2012, average home prices across the United States are back to the levels where they were in late 2002 for the 20-City Composite and to early 2003 levels for the 10-City Composite. Measured from their June/July 2006 peaks through February 2012, the decline for both Composite is approximately 35%. February’s levels are new lows for both Composites in the current housing cycle.

The S&P Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Index fell to 134.20 in February:

This marked a 0.76% drop between January and February.  Overall, since August of last year, prices have fallen by 6.1%:

Since their peak in July of 2006, home prices have now fallen by 35%.